Advisory Alliance - 60-Second Email (TM) - Will You Disappear in 2014?

Will You Disappear in 2014?

December 31, 2007

In this month's 60-Second Email™, we look at the impending shortage of leadership and managerial talent.

Will you go missing in 2014? If you were between the ages of 35 and 44 in 2004, there's a chance you will be missing in 2014. In fact 2.8 million of you will go missing. If you imagine that a decent size sports arena can hold 30,000 people, you'd need more than 90 of those arenas to hold 2.8 million people. That's a lot of people to go missing.

Now they won't be missing literally. Not in the sense that you were here in 2004, but now no one can find you in 2014. But in another way, one that will have a major impact on employers, your absence will be very real.

According to its study, Labor Force Projections to 2014: Retiring Boomers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that in 2004 there were 36.1 million people aged 35 to 44 in the US labor force. According to projections, in 2014 there will be only 33.3 million people 35 to 44 in the labor force. That's a drop of 2.8 million people. And this will occur in a labor force that will have grown overall by 10%.

What's going on here? In large part, the overall labor force will grow because of the substantial increase in workers aged 55 and older. But the 35 to 44 year cohort will shrink due to the Baby Bust generation, the generation that succeeded the Baby Boomers. Bottom-line, there aren't as many Baby Busters to replace the Baby Boomers. And recent work by the BLS indicates that this 35 to 44 year-old shortage will continue into 2016, with new shortages appearing for those between ages 45 and 54.

Why should companies be concerned? Because much of their leadership and managerial talent is between 35 and 44. For many companies, much of their mid-level talent is in that age range. This is the age group that many companies develop for their future leaders.

So what can you expect?

Increased competition for experienced leadership and managerial talent.
And increased poaching of your company's talent.

What can you do?

Recruit aggressively. Recruiting is increasingly becoming a matter of identifying specific talent you need, and going after it.
Select wisely. You can't afford to hire the wrong candidate, or not hire the right one. Use proven and validated methods to screen, assess, and select your candidates.
Protect what you have from companies who will also be recruiting aggressively. Stay close to your best talent. Challenge them, and provide them opportunity for growth.
Develop more of your people. Increasingly, companies will have to rely on the people they develop internally. Finding people on the outside will become difficult. For many of you, you are already experiencing this.
Plan accordingly. If a key supplier told you there was an impending shortage of supplies, you'd start planning ASAP. The same is true with your people. Consider yourself forewarned.

You can access this and previous 60-Second Emails (TM) via this link to our website: http://www.advisoryalliance.com/newsletter.php

On a different matter, we had a great response to our offer concerning The Conference Board report, The Changing Role of the COO, for which I served as contributing author with Dr. Robert J. Kramer, its Principal Researcher. The report examines how the COO role is being transformed by the scope and intensity of market forces and their accompanying leadership demands.

The study and findings are based on in-depth interviews with executives from companies representing diverse industries as well as a literature review. Executives surveyed include heads of human resources, regional heads, COOs, CEOs, heads of business unit, and heads of company research.

If you'd like a copy, please reply to this email, and I'll be glad to send you one personally.

Best wishes for a most Happy New Year,

David

David Harper

Managing Principal

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